Tuesday, December 1, 2009

In Depth look at this Saturday's games

Lets not waste anytime and get into it. Oregon vs. Oregon State.

Arguably, the two biggest stars in this game are Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, and Oregon St. running back, Jacquizz Rodgers. Watching both teams play this year one word describes Masoli; Winner. Unpredictable at times, and maybe a little erratic, he always seems to find a way to win in the end ( See Arizona game). He is the unquestioned leader on the team, and as he goes, the Oregon offense will go. Making him even more dangerous, he is joined by freshman sensation LaMichael James int he backfield. This teams loves to run, option, spread option, the works. Teams can stop one, but stopping both is a little difficult. (ala VY and Chris Johnson). I think the Oregon State defense needs to focus on makig Masoli a true pocket passer, and take their chances with LaMichael James running the ball. In games in which he has rushed for fewer than 40 yards, they are 1-2 on the season. He cannot be allowed to break the pocket and run at will. He is completing only 58% of his passes. So to have a chance, make Masoli throw. On the other side, Jaquizz Rodgers is their main weapon. Considered a Heisman candidate at many points during the season, he has rushed for over 1,300 yards, and has 19 TD's. When he is out of the lineup, or is not playing well, the Oregon St. Offense seems lost. No question he needs to start fast and stay consistent. Oregon St. might run a few trick plays with Quizz and his older brother James, a WR with lightning speed. They might need to stray away from their pro style offense to try and trick up the ducks. Remember this is more intense than a rivalry game (oregon being so small, and schools being fairly close to each other), and there is a trip to the Rosebowl on the line, so anything can happen.This game is AT Oregon in the famed, Autzen stadium, which may be the toughest place to play in the country.... Should be the most entertaining game on Saturday.

Prediction: 37-30 Oregon


Next we have the Big 12 Championship game... Texas v. Nebraska.

Texas is led by all everything senior Colt Mccoy. The winningest QB ever, he has never played for a Big12 championship, and one is staring him down on Saturday. He is the most accurate passer in the country, completing 72% of his passes, with 27 TD's and 9 picks. They are going up against a tough defense with a dumptruck in the middle, Ndamukong Suh. This guy is a straight beast. He may be unblockable one on one, so the UT offensive line will need to double team him to keep him at bay. However, this may open it up for others on the D-line, so the o-lines communication and protection schemes will need to be flawless. I think Texas still needs the run, but these short passes on 1st and 2nd down basically neutralize the pass rush, and open the door for the run game later on. Colt needs a big game from Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll, as well as Dan Buckner, who has been out of sync recently. Jordan will get his, but since Nebraska will most certainly roll coverage to his side, Williams and Kirkendoll should be looking at 1-1 matchups most of the night. Buckner needs to gain more confidence, as he was a huge weapon early on. No linebacker in college football has the speed and size to stay with somone of Buckners talent, and size. Tre Newton should have a difficult time running the ball, as Nebraskas D-line is very good. Go back to last years red river shootout, and the pound game against Oklahomas very good D-line opened up in the 4th. Texas must not abondon it, and stick with it, it will make things easier for Colt. The Nebraska Offense on the other hand is somewhat pathetic. They rank 92 in total offense, and 64th in running. A tough challenge when going up against the #1 rush defense. To put it simply, Nebraska needs to score. No way they have the offensive fire power to stick with Texas. They need to score more than 21 points to have a chance in this game. They are far to inconsistent, one week putting up 31 agasint Kansas, and one week, putting 7 up agasint IOWA STATE. This game is going to be somewaht of a defensive battle, but Nebraska needs to score, and score often. If not, this game might be over fairly quickly.

Both Teams have outstanding defenses, with Texas ranking 5th, and Nebraska 11th in total defense. Texas' strenghts are their D-line and Secondary, and the same can be said about Nebraska. The Husker's D-line puts so much pressure on QB's, which makes the Secondary look that much better. Texas needs to put pressure on the QB, and look for Muschamp to dial up some exotic blitz packages... delayed corner blitzs, complex stunts, zone's, etc. He is a master of scheming, and you better believe after their dismal performance agasint A&M, he will have them ready to go. Lamaar Houston, Sergio Kindle, Kheeston Randle, Sam Acho, all need to get pressure on the QB, and I think they will.... Nebraska also has two very good D-linemen, and the one that doesnt get much attention is Jared Crick (69 tackles, 9 sacks). He is very, very good, and with so much attention given to Suh, it opens the door for Crick, (much like Sergio Kindle, and Sam Acho). Texas need not forget about Crick, or else he could be living in the backfield.

I think the Longhorns will be extremely focused and will come out firing. Their defense will be extra ready on Saturday. Nebraska just doesnt have the offense to stick with Texas, and this is the difference.

Prediction: 35-13 Texas

Finally...The SEC championship... #1 Florida vs #2 Alabama...

Most people when they look at Florida think of this great team, great on offense and great on defense. This is not the case... and dont let the numbers deceive you. Against a pretty good South Carolina defense, they threw for 199 yrs and rushed for 140, and only scored 24 points...With that said, in the SEC style of play, where defense dominates, these numbers are good enough to win, mainly because of Floridays NFL type defense, led by All American Joe Haden, and Carlos Dunlap (more on him in a minute.) Their defense shuts other teams down, which allows their offense to get by. Florida has one consistent reciever, Riley Cooper, and only 2 receivers with more than 30 receptions. They have a solid core of speedy backs, but they are going to need someone else to step up, or Riley Cooper to have a big day. Tebow leads the team in rushing with 796 yards, and if Alabama wants to win this game, they will not let him run. Thats where he is most dangerous, because if he runs, it opens up the pass. Make Tebow a true pocket passer, while containing him inside the pocket (easier said than done). Also, if Alabama can have good coverage downfield, it will cause Tebow to hold the ball longer, opening up the lanes for the Bama D.....On the other side, Bama offense is much the same, only a little more balanced. McElroy's numbers arent anything special....2211 yrds passing, 16 td's 4 picks. He has struggled of late, and has relied on many underneath throws to his playmakers (Ingram, Jones, Richardson) to get it done. Julio Jones was a ghost for much of the season, but seems to be waking up at just the right time. The key for McElroy is simple: dont turn it over, and get the ball to Julio. Joe Haden will be covering Julio jones, so it might be hard to throw down the field, so look for a lot of WR screens, End arounds, etc....they must get the ball in his hands....as for Mark Ingram... coming off a dismal performance against Auburn, he needs to have a good game. He was banged up in that game, but says he will play. He is their workhorse, who got them to where they are, so they will rely on him early, if he is able. If not, they have a solid backup in Trent Richardson who is faster, and a one cut runner, rather than a power back type. With Ingram however they have a very good pass catcher, as he is 2nd on the team with 28 receptions and 3 TD's. Their special teams is also very very good with Javier Arenas, who just set a record for most punt return yards. He is absolutely a threat to go the distance every time, so Florida really will need to work on tackling in space....Bama D is very stout, led by lineback Rolando Mcclain, who will be going up against the other best linebacker in the country, Brandon Spikes. This should be a fairly low scoring game.


Just got word that Carlos Dunlap (all american DE) was arrest for driving while intoxicated. This is a big problem. Spikes was arrested earlier in the year, and Urban only suspended him for a half (later, Spikes suspended himself for the game). This really puts the coach in a tough spot. I think he has no choice but to suspend Dunlap, and if thats the case, they lose one of the best defensive players in the country. They lose the leadership. It causes a huge distraction for the team, and effects their game plan. This is a huge loss for the Gators, if Urban does suspend him (which we have seen in the past is not something he likes to do). I still think Florida wins this game, but it will be low scoring, and a defensive battle.

Prediction: 27-21 Florida

Should be one of the best weekends in college football... exciting games all day long. In the end, Florida, Texas, and Oregon will all win, and go on to their respective BCS bowl games. Enjoy

Z$

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